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Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T17:07Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-09-04 22:38
-Time at C2: 2017-09-04 21:00
-Radial speed: 1550.0 km/s
-Half angle: 46 deg
-Eruption location: S10W10
Inferences:
-No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
-In-situ shock speed: 871.00 km/s
-Shock arrival time: 2017-09-06 17:07 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.12 hours)

Lead Time: 44.68 hour(s)
Difference: 6.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2017-09-05T02:27Z

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